Highlights
Market trends
- The Trump Rally in November cost U.S. equities any hope for a meaningful December Santa Claus rally.
- While fewer housing starts is a seasonally appropriate expectation, building permits showed a pleasantly surprising increase.
- The Futures market could be foreshadowing a possibility that 2025 might kick off with a correction.
Economic trends
- In the presence of an increase in Non-Farm payrolls, the Unemployment Rate ticked up and labor force participation softened, signaling a cooling labor market with an unusual root-cause.
- Both CPI and PPI increased, confirming consumer sentiments about rising costs are accurate.
- The FOMC made its final rate cut for the year in December, and stated a more conservative stance for 2025.
political trends
- Everyone’s eyes are on Donald Trump and his new administration. The final months of 2024 gave the populace glimpses of the seriousness behind the Trump administration’s intentions to “clean house”.
Donald Trump was elected our 47th President of the United States. The FOMC fanned a heating economy with two 0.25% rate cuts, one in November and one in December. Elon Musk rallied the people’s attention via X.com to slash a government spending bill from going through Congress.
markets
Trump Stole Santa’s Thunder
Following the 2024 Presidential Election of Donald J. Trump, markets began to climb higher. November 2024 saw a near month-long bull run in the markets.
Speculation says investors were happy with the POTUS outcome, though it remains unclear if this reaction would have transpired regardless of candidate selection.
December showed lackluster market action as a whole. November’s momentum slowed and investors realized profits on their post-election positions. As Trump’s administration members were announced, market participants began to formulate sentiments and predictions for the coming term.
Whispered wishes of a December Santa Claus rally seemed to stay just as they are: just wishes.
economy
Employees & Employers Go Head-to-Head on Value
An increase in non-farm payrolls in November showed that more workers were on payroll. Yet, the labor participation rate softened and unemployment rate increased. To make sense of these numbers, a glimpse at work culture shifts could be helpful.
With the pandemic came the “Work From Home” wave. Commutes were eliminated, and office politics dropped off the radar as well. While employees quality of life improved, business’s growth projections were perceived to be at risk. As supply chains came back online in 2022 and 2023, businesses began to demand workers return to office.
This year saw a stronger push to normalize the return to office demand by businesses. Many workers chose to resign rather than put themselves or their families through a major schedule change to accommodate (once again) daily commutes and mandatory work socials.
The final two quarters of 2024 saw an increase in strikes, some of which made national news headlines. It seems that workers are demanding fairness. These new generations of the labor force are refusing to settle for less than their worth as human beings.
politics
We The People Are Back on Capitol Hill
This November and December was a volatile time for both news media and social media. As news outlets reported on new administrators in Trump’s office, social media platforms were exercised in an unprecedented manner.
Elon Musk spearheaded a move on social media to tank a congressional bill that was making its way through our government. The bill aimed to increase governmental spending through March 2025, along with a few other liberties that crossed boundaries.
Elon took to X (formerly Twitter) to urge people of the United States to contact their representatives to kill the bill. The picture for this article is a representation of the congressional bill before and after it was amended for approval.
This demonstration was patriotic in that it painted a picture that the people’s voice not only still matters, but also that voice still has an impact.
market plan
Where I’m Putting My Money
Going into 2025, I’m continuing to actively trade the equities markets. Both corrections and bull runs often provide profitable opportunities.
I’m also staying actively invested in the short-term bonds market, specifically 4-week treasuries. This investment vehicle works well for me; longer term bonds seem more convenient for large corporate or institutional investors.
This next year will include realizations on investments I made into my education during 2024. In essence, some of my company’s capital was reinvested for growth. Realizing the intangible value on those investments is something I look forward to in 2025.
Best of luck to you investors and traders – stay profitable!
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About the Author
Michelle Salene
Michelle is an active participant in U.S. capital markets, specializing in equities.
Legal Disclaimer: All content and statements provided are for informational purposes only and are not investment advice. The statements herein are the opinion of the author only. The author is not responsible for readers’ financial nor personal investment decisions. All information should be individually and independently evaluated prior to making financial investing and trading decisions.